Project Complexity in a VUCA World

By the IIL Team
September 4, 2025

Both Dr. Harold Kerzner and Dr. Mark Reeson explore the increasing complexity of project management in a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world.

Watch our podcast concisely talking about managing the aspects of VUCA within projects.

Harold Kerzner’s White Paper, The Growth of Project Complexity in a VUCA World, traces the evolution of project complexity, from its initial neglect to its current recognition as a critical factor, outlining how traditional “one-size-fits-all” methodologies are no longer sufficient for non-traditional and strategic projects.

Differences Between Traditional and Non-traditional Projects

Factor	Traditional Project	Non-Traditional or Strategic Project
Business Case	Usually well-defined	May not exist in the early stages of the project and may be subject to change throughout the project
Statement of Work (SOW)	Usually well-defined	May not exist; may have only strategic goals to work with. The SOW can change throughout the project
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)	May be developed for the entire project	May be known only for work needed for the next few weeks and subject to change
Earned Value Management System (EVMS)	Somewhat helpful	May have limited use based upon the number of unknowns and introduction of competing constraints
Specifications	Usually known	May not exist
Schedule	Known	Unknown and possibly subject to continuous changes
Cost	Known	Unknown at the start and may be subject to continuous changes
Risks	Usually known and can be quantified	May be unknown and subject to new risks appearing without warning
Complexity	Known with some degree of confidence	May not be known and subject to change

Mark Reeson’s paper, Stepping Safely Into the Unknown: Project Management in a VUCA Environment, expands on the application of VUCA in project management, particularly within post-disaster recovery, emphasizing the need for adaptive leadership, empowered teams, and continuous learning to navigate such unpredictable environments. Both authors underscore the importance of understanding and managing each component of VUCA to achieve project success in a continuously changing global landscape, advocating for innovative solutions and flexible frameworks.

Mark Reeson outlines a 4-step VUCA dimension framework:

Step 1: Purpose

To be crystal clear in defining why you’re entering this situation. Define the scope, even if you don’t know how you’ll get there yet. You’ll need to define clarity on the “what” and “why”, even though the “how” may be fuzzy.

Step 2: Resourcing

This is about getting the right people together as a cohesive team. This will also entail empowering decision-making amongst your team members, sharing responsibility, and requiring adaptability to mix skills as needed. Often this may require flexibility in team structure, while building team values and embracing emotional intelligence and interpersonal skills.

Step 3: Achievement

This is about execution. Reeson stresses the value of simulation, practice runs, and rapid knowledge management so that lessons learned can be applied now, with emphasis on immediate feedback loops, rather than waiting for a six-month review cycle. The leader’s role is essential to continuous improvement and to reinforce the mission of the project, keeping everyone focused. And, to integrate succession planning throughout to avoid single points of failure, which is crucial to unstable environments.

Step 4: Withdrawal

You need a managed, measured approach for an exit strategy upon project completion. The withdrawal should be steady, proportionate, and leave the environment in a better state than you found it. Timing is also key, based on the achieved goals, based in the “Purpose” step. Plus, setting up governance for sustainability after you leave, maintaining ethics during the handover process, and smartly re-deploying your resources once the new owners are ready. Overall, it’s about responsible disengagement, not simply just finishing the task.

Consider a Mindset Shift

We can manage complexity with the right approaches, the right tools, and most importantly, the right mindset. To achieve success in VUCA projects, consider this:

- Change volatility through versatility,
- Reduce uncertainty by developing understanding,
- Remove complexity by demonstrating creativity, and
- Eliminate ambiguity through constant adaptability.

Preparedness is essential – disasters and disruptions will keep on happening – so we need adaptable governance.

For a more in-depth analysis on VUCA, read our two free White Papers:

The Growth of Project Complexity in a VUCA World, by Dr. Harold Kerzner

Stepping Safely Into the Unknown: Project Management in a VUCA Environment, by Dr. Mark Reeson

Harold Kerzner, Ph.D.

Dr. Harold Kerzner is a globally recognized expert in project, program, and portfolio management, innovation, and strategic planning, and Senior Executive Director at International Institute for Learning (IIL). For over 50 years, Dr. Kerzner has shared vital guidance for making project management a strategic tool for competitive advantage and helping companies around the world build a powerful foundation for company improvement and excellence.

Dr. Mark Reeson

Dr. Mark Reeson, ChPP, RPP, FAPM, MCMI, PMP, is Director of Project Management Services at M R Project Solutions Limited. As a Senior Consultant and Trainer with IIL, Mark provides expertise in project management, interpersonal and leadership skills, risk management, quality management, and other management development services.